Curb Your Enthusiasm

liquid's YTD: $5222.76

I cleared my Stars bonus yesterday, and partly by virtue of said bonus, the Stars line on my YTD chart is finally in the black. Hooray. This is despite my all-time biggest single-hand loss:

Omaha Pot Limit ($0.50/$1)

Seat 5: Moran (Button, $164.70)
Seat 7: Hero (SB, $144.25) [Kd Ad 5h As]
Seat 9: Shorty (UTG, $26.25)

2 folds, 2 calls, Moran raises $6 to $7.

Ah geez. I was getting ready to call it a night, and was tempted just to fold and leave. But one of my side cards is very good, and LAGgy Moran could be raising with anything from the button, so this could actually be fun.

Hero calls $6.50, 1 fold, Shorty raises $19.25 to $26.25 and is all-in, 2 folds, Moran raises $63 to $89.25.

Moran is looking to isolate. He could be in good shape three-way if Shorty has my other two aces, but Shorty is short enough that he could be easily pushing with non-AAxx hands. Away we go....

Hero raises $55 to $144.25 and is all-in. Moran calls $55.

FLOP [3h Ks Jd]
TURN [3h Ks Jd 4h]
RIVER [3h Ks Jd 4h 6s]

SHOWDOWN
Hero shows [Kd Ad 5h As] for a pair of Aces.
Moran shows [6c 6d 4d 3d] for three of a kind, Sixes.
Shorty mucks [8d Ah 8c Ac] for a pair of Aces.
Moran wins $236 from side pot.
Moran wins $79.25 from main pot.

The ugly numbers:

pokenum -mc 500000 -o kd ad 5h as - 6c 6d 4d 3d - 8d ah 8c ac
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad Kd 5h 74911 14.98 289763 57.95 135326 27.07 0.285
6c 6d 4d 3d 153178 30.64 346822 69.36 0 0.00 0.306
Ac 8c 8d Ah 136585 27.32 228089 45.62 135326 27.07 0.408

Yech. Almost a worst-case scenario: Shorty has my aces and one of my diamonds, and Moran has three of my other diamonds. Still, my EV for the $236 side pot is good, even factoring in the dead cards:

pokenum -mc 500000 -o kd ad 5h as - 6c 6d 4d 3d / 8d ah 8c ac
Omaha Hi: 500000 sampled boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ad Kd 5h 303417 60.68 196583 39.32 0 0.00 0.607
6c 6d 4d 3d 196583 39.32 303417 60.68 0 0.00 0.393

So s'all good. I guess.