It Would Have Worked If It Weren't For You Meddling Kids
liquid's YTD: $1879.66
Fun table, fun hand:
Nine-out straight draw and a middling flush draw. Okey doke.
More straight draws for hero. The known LAG could be pushing two pair. Straggler is an unknown player; could have anything from a flush draw to a low set. I'm in good shape if I can get rid of any bare flush draw that beats mine. The problem is that LAG could call with anything other than a bluff, giving Straggler odds to tag along. It might be better if their positions were reversed, but here we go:
It almost worked.
Here are the numbers:
pokenum -o 2s kc 9c 6h - 5d 4c 7s 5h - 8d 7d th 6c -- 9d kd 5s 4h
Omaha Hi: 36 enumerated boards containing 5s Kd 9d 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s Kc 9c 6h 4 11.11 32 88.89 0 0.00 0.111
7s 4c 5d 5h 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
6c 8d 7d Th 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
If I'd been able to shake Straggler, I would have been almost even money heads-up:
pokenum -o 2s kc 9c 6h - 8d 7d th 6c -- 9d kd 5s 4h
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 5s Kd 9d 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s Kc 9c 6h 21 52.50 19 47.50 0 0.00 0.525
6c 8d 7d Th 19 47.50 21 52.50 0 0.00 0.475
So my equity three-way was actually better than heads-up. I think I still need to push, though, since I need my flush outs.
I didn't have any problems with this bust out. The odds are in line with what I anticipated, there wasn't a terrible beat, and I'm happy with my play. In fact, jamming likely helped my table image, since four hands later I got my buy-in back when top two pair pushed against my top set.
Fun table, fun hand:
Omaha Hi $0.50-$0.50 PL (real money)
Seat 3: LAG (B1, $55.50)
Seat 7: Straggler (UTG+1, $56)
Seat 10: Hero (MP3, $42.50) [8D,7D,10H,6C]
ANTES/BLINDS
LAG posts blind ($0.50), B2 posts blind ($0.50).
PRE-FLOP
UTG calls $0.50, Straggler calls $0.50, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, LAG checks, B2 checks.
FLOP [9D,KD,5S]
LAG bets $2, B2 folds, UTG calls $2, Straggler calls $2, MP2 folds,
Nine-out straight draw and a middling flush draw. Okey doke.
Hero calls $2, CO folds, Button folds.
TURN [9D,KD,5S,4H]
LAG bets $12, UTG folds, Straggler calls $12,
More straight draws for hero. The known LAG could be pushing two pair. Straggler is an unknown player; could have anything from a flush draw to a low set. I'm in good shape if I can get rid of any bare flush draw that beats mine. The problem is that LAG could call with anything other than a bluff, giving Straggler odds to tag along. It might be better if their positions were reversed, but here we go:
Hero bets $40 and is all-in, LAG bets $41 and is all-in, Straggler [thinks and thinks and thinks and finally] calls $41.
RIVER [9D,KD,5S,4H,4D]
SHOWDOWN
LAG shows [2S,KC,9C,6H] for two pair, kings and nines.
Straggler shows [5D,4C,7S,5H] for a full house, fives over fours.
Hero shows [8D,7D,10H,6C] for a flush, king high.
Straggler wins $26, Straggler wins $129.
It almost worked.
Here are the numbers:
pokenum -o 2s kc 9c 6h - 5d 4c 7s 5h - 8d 7d th 6c -- 9d kd 5s 4h
Omaha Hi: 36 enumerated boards containing 5s Kd 9d 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s Kc 9c 6h 4 11.11 32 88.89 0 0.00 0.111
7s 4c 5d 5h 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
6c 8d 7d Th 16 44.44 20 55.56 0 0.00 0.444
If I'd been able to shake Straggler, I would have been almost even money heads-up:
pokenum -o 2s kc 9c 6h - 8d 7d th 6c -- 9d kd 5s 4h
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 5s Kd 9d 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
2s Kc 9c 6h 21 52.50 19 47.50 0 0.00 0.525
6c 8d 7d Th 19 47.50 21 52.50 0 0.00 0.475
So my equity three-way was actually better than heads-up. I think I still need to push, though, since I need my flush outs.
I didn't have any problems with this bust out. The odds are in line with what I anticipated, there wasn't a terrible beat, and I'm happy with my play. In fact, jamming likely helped my table image, since four hands later I got my buy-in back when top two pair pushed against my top set.
posted by liquid at 11:08 PM
3 Comments:
Yeah, I wouldn't play a crap hand like 8d 7d 10h 6c in mid position, bonehead.
OK, so let's see. After the turn you have 15 outs, assuming the middle caller is not on a better flush draw, which is possible (especially after hi $12 turn call)
I would have to put the first guy on top set at this point. If you pot it right there with 15 outs, only the first guy will call (but would then be reduced to 13 outs if he really had a set)
OK, I just saw what you did, which was my first impression. Look at the odds though.
#1 - With 13 potential outs (assuming your flush is good, which at this point I am thinking it might not be), you are a 3.3 to 1 dog to hit. Based on what you know about your opponents you should assign a percentage likely hood that this is the correct scenario and use that in your decision making process.
#2 - With clean outs only to your straight, you are a 6.2 to 1 dog to hit.
$35.50 in the pot at that time, $12 to call, about 3 to 1. So you are good if you
think your flush draw is good, but way off if it is not (assuming no one will call on the end if you hit your hand)
I would only make the play you made if you were pretty sure you could push Straggler out and you we very sure that scenario #1 was in fact the case.
I may have folded. i think that is an expensive way to buy table image.
but what do I know, I am a tight ass beeatch.
n.
Fold pre-flop? Bah! You misunderestimate the power of the middle run. I admit the gap at the top of the run is unfortunate though.
Note that I had a full 16 clean outs, making me 44% to win a three-way pot. Them's good eatin'!
You Omaha players are hopeless. I would have had to have them by the balls in NH before I made a move like that.
that is why I am a moneymaker, just like the commercial says.
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