Bad Nuts

liquid's YTD: $1862.66

Another fun hand from the ongoing "Only In Omaha" series.

Omaha Hi $0.50-$0.50 PL (real money)

Seat 3: UnluckyAces (B1, $13.50)
Seat 7: BareStraight (MP1, $62.50)
Seat 8: Luckbox (MP2, $51.25)
Seat 9: Hero (MP3, $144.50) [3H,5C,5D,3D]

ANTES/BLINDS
UnluckyAces posts blind ($0.50), B2 posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, BareStraight calls $0.50, Luckbox calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, CO calls $0.50, Button folds, UnluckyAces checks, B2 checks.

With four limpers to me, I really wanted to put in a pot-sized raise (or just fold -- who wants bottom set vs. the field), but for some reason I ended up calling instead. In (results-oriented) hindsight, it's a good thing I did not raise.

FLOP [AC,4S,2S]
UnluckyAces bets $4, B2 calls $4, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, BareStraight bets $20, Luckbox calls $20

Ugh. I have the current nuts but am likely in heaps of trouble. I don't think I've folded the nuts before, but with only $0.50 invested I can't imagine a better first time to do so:

Hero folds, CO folds, UnluckyAces calls $9 and is all-in, B2 folds.

TURN [AC,4S,2S,4D]

* sigh of relief *

BareStraight bets $42 and is all-in, Luckbox calls $30.75 and is all-in.

RIVER [AC,4S,2S,4D,10C]

SHOWDOWN
BareStraight shows [5S,3C,2H,10D]
Luckbox shows [8H,4C,4H,AS]
UnluckyAces shows [8D,AD,AH,6S]
BareStraight wins $11.25, Luckbox wins $119.50.

Actually my equity was much better than I anticipated. The monsters I was imagining under my bed had improved straight redraws, sets, and flush draws galore:

pokenum -o 3h 5c 5d 3d - 5s 3c 2h 6d - 8s 4c 4h as - 8d ad ah 6s -- ac 4s 2s
Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing 4s 2s Ac
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 5d 3d 3h 0 0.00 321 60.80 207 39.20 0.196
5s 3c 6d 2h 24 4.55 297 56.25 207 39.20 0.241
As 8s 4c 4h 196 37.12 332 62.88 0 0.00 0.371
6s Ad 8d Ah 101 19.13 427 80.87 0 0.00 0.191

Instead, considering all the action, I had what was close to a best-case scenario: two sets eating each other's outs, and no flush or improving straight draws at all:

pokenum -o 3h 5c 5d 3d - 5s 3c 2h td - 8h 4c 4h as - 8d ad ah 6s -- ac 4s 2s
Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing 4s 2s Ac
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5c 5d 3d 3h 0 0.00 134 25.38 394 74.62 0.373
5s 3c Td 2h 1 0.19 133 25.19 394 74.62 0.375
As 4c 8h 4h 32 6.06 495 93.75 1 0.19 0.061
6s Ad 8d Ah 101 19.13 427 80.87 0 0.00 0.191

So I passed on a hand that was 3:1 to split. What a funny game.

Side note: I was also on the happy side of the redraw coin this evening, jamming with the nut straight and a flush redraw that hit on the river. Final pot: $216.50. Yay for Omaha!