Promises, Promises

liquid's YTD: $635.10

So much for my resolutions. I've already broken #1 and #2 at least twice each.

1) I find myself at a table with several very agressive players. But I'm treading water so I decide to stick it out. (Resolution #1 broken.)

In the big blind I'm dealt a measly 2dTd8d3s. But no one raises, and seven see the flop: Jh9d7h. I have the nut straight in early position with no hope of improvement, two to a flush on the board, a measly $3.50 pot, and several deep stacks at the table. Bleah. In that position, I hate declaring my hand to everyone. I really just want to see a cheap turn before I go wild, so I check. Table checks around to CO, who pots it. Button folds and a very short-stacked SB calls all-in. I call and the rest fold.

Turn brings a blank. I bet $5. CO moves all-in for another $10.50. I happily call. Worst-case scenario, CO is free-rolling against me with the same straight and a draw -- a likely split pot. Best-case scenario, I've successfully disguised my straight and got a dog to go all-in.

Result: CO had AsJc9cTh. Yay me! Chalk up a huge theoretical win for liquid:

pokenum -o 2d td 8d 3s - as jc 9c th -- jh 9d 7h 2c
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 2c 9d Jh 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
3s Td 8d 2d 33 82.50 4 10.00 3 7.50 0.863
As Jc 9c Th 4 10.00 33 82.50 3 7.50 0.138

Back in the real world, CO caught a 9 on the river to make his full house. Crud.

2) I get a very nice Tc9dTs7s in middle position, lean towards raising, but end up limping. No raises, seven see the flop: 7h5cTd. I go ahead and pot it ($3.50). I get one call: A wacko. Oh boy. The turn brings 8d for a straight possibility. I check to wacko. He thinks for a while, and finally pots it ($10.50). Resolution #2 tells me to fold. But this guy is a known maniac who's donated to me before, and in the off-chance he actually has a straight, I still have some outs with my set. I use most of my allotted time before potting it back ($42), enough to put him all-in. He quickly calls. Crap. River brings a blank.

Result: Wacko had Th5d6s8s -- a respectable three pair with a straight draw, but almost everything good about his hand was bettered by mine. Yay me! Another big theoretical win:

pokenum -o tc 9d ts 7s - th 5d 6s 8s -- 7h 5c td 8d
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing 5c Td 8d 7h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts 7s Tc 9d 33 82.50 7 17.50 0 0.00 0.825
8s 6s 5d Th 7 17.50 33 82.50 0 0.00 0.175

Back in the real world, the river brought a blank, so for a change I got some actual money as well.

3) Yet again, I'm at a table with a very loose agressive player. He is raising every other hand and scaring folks off. Resolution #1 tells me I should be among those folks. But I stick around for "just one more orbit...."

In the big blind, I get 4c7h6s5c: a fun hand. LAggy is on the button but surprisingly does not raise, and six see the flop: 8d2s4h. Sweet, I have a 13-out straight with no flush to worry about. I bet $2. Two call, and LAggy.... pots it for $13. Resolution #2 tells me to fold. I call. The others fold.

Turn is 7s. I check, LAggy pots it for $33 -- just enough to put me all in -- and I cheerfully call.

Result: Surprise #1 was that LAggy actually had the goods on the flop: 8sQd8cTh. So chalk up a theoretical loss for me. (I really need to stick to those resolutions.) However, surprise #2 is that even with his top set, he wasn't as far ahead as I would have thought:

pokenum -o 4c 7h 6s 5c - 8s qd 8c th -- 8d 2s 4h
Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing 2s 8d 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6s 5c 4c 7h 362 44.15 458 55.85 0 0.00 0.441
8s 8c Qd Th 458 55.85 362 44.15 0 0.00 0.559

Very educational.

Back in the real world, the river brought a blank and I won. Hot diggity.