To deal or not to deal
Napalm's YTD: $11,172.25
So does it make sense to get a guaranteed extra $1000 when you get down to 4 people in a tournament?
Some say its all luck when the blinds and antes are 10% of the average stack and money in the bank makes a lot of sense. I was 3 of 4 in chips; the chip leader had about double and the rest of the three remaining players were about even.
So I took the deal. $1961.10
Then we played out the tournament for tournament leaderboard points, and of course, I won. Now granted, we played a lot looser at after the deal was struck, but I probably would have played it almost the same way, super aggressive.
Oh well, maybe one of these days I will get up the balls to turn down a deal.
info:
Stars $20 + $2 multi table, 710 players
First place would have taken $3500, 4th $900
So does it make sense to get a guaranteed extra $1000 when you get down to 4 people in a tournament?
Some say its all luck when the blinds and antes are 10% of the average stack and money in the bank makes a lot of sense. I was 3 of 4 in chips; the chip leader had about double and the rest of the three remaining players were about even.
So I took the deal. $1961.10
Then we played out the tournament for tournament leaderboard points, and of course, I won. Now granted, we played a lot looser at after the deal was struck, but I probably would have played it almost the same way, super aggressive.
Oh well, maybe one of these days I will get up the balls to turn down a deal.
info:
Stars $20 + $2 multi table, 710 players
First place would have taken $3500, 4th $900
posted by napalm at 11:21 AM
2 Comments:
Analytically, it's obvious: If we consider the regressive line between the covariate and the regressive posttest, then even adjusting for residuals, you are a deal-making weenie.
Barry Greenstein's Dan Harrington anecdote:
When Dan made it to the final table of the 1995 World Series of Poker, he proposed a nine-way settlement to the other players. He explained how they would each get enough money that they could invest it and be rich. Chuck Thompson, one of the players and a friend of mine, rejected the idea and told the other players that this was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to make a million dollars. One by one, as each player got knocked out, Dan tried to sell the idea, even offering investment counseling. There were no takers and eventually Dan came away with the full million.
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